Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 3.114588 3.349558 3.613300 3.935930 4.326913 4.795499 5.416968
2025-02-23 2.731034 3.016622 3.357638 3.807884 4.409987 5.229843 6.530072
2025-03-02 2.546766 2.865665 3.263667 3.820683 4.629148 5.869502 8.271951
2025-03-09 2.406148 2.742973 3.176940 3.811675 4.796222 6.478174 10.533005
2025-03-16 2.274457 2.615082 3.063339 3.739219 4.839485 6.886790 12.991356
2025-03-23 2.212636 2.570794 3.054711 3.813470 5.132261 7.920217 20.657555
2025-03-30 2.106122 2.457589 2.937693 3.703141 5.072948 8.154046 27.051035
2025-04-06 2.009123 2.351148 2.821803 3.580756 4.966812 8.229106 34.892352
2025-04-13 1.935764 2.272993 2.741110 3.506327 4.939025 8.513310 59.768694
2025-04-20 1.907216 2.254863 2.746089 3.572139 5.203852 9.872869 NaN
2025-04-27 1.898568 2.263537 2.790716 3.709870 5.661979 12.611882 NaN
2025-05-04 1.859290 2.226029 2.761694 3.713336 5.816064 14.439673 NaN
2025-05-11 1.824854 2.195477 2.743912 3.740306 6.052929 17.723307 NaN
2025-05-18 1.763523 2.123224 2.656531 3.628718 5.902403 17.798824 NaN
2025-05-25 1.732098 2.093535 2.635078 3.640683 6.094920 22.258260 NaN
2025-06-01 1.699055 2.059906 2.605089 3.632604 6.230978 28.036968 NaN
2025-06-08 1.657289 2.011670 2.548823 3.567150 6.179477 30.836392 NaN
2025-06-15 1.643200 2.004089 2.558281 3.634231 6.565899 65.606928 NaN
2025-06-22 1.599795 1.950794 2.489530 3.534503 6.374917 61.049597 NaN
2025-06-29 1.556271 1.896296 2.417113 3.423497 6.132268 50.352620 NaN
2025-07-06 1.522501 1.855781 2.366744 3.355791 6.029758 52.893762 NaN
2025-07-13 1.513275 1.852077 2.377377 3.415666 6.382821 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 1.515028 1.865021 2.416503 3.540595 7.045323 NaN NaN